Win-from-anywhere Pakistan face 430-conquerors Sri Lanka at high-scoring Lahore
Pakistan have already qualified for the final, but the result of this game will determine whether Sri Lanka join them or if England still stand a chance
Madushka Balasuriya
Published: Oct 26, 2026, 10:22 AM (1 hr ago)
Sri Lanka went down to Pakistan by 37 runs in the ODI tri-series opener • Muhammad Sameer Ali/Getty Images
Big picture: Will Pakistan test their bench?
Tuesday's face-off between Pakistan and Sri Lanka in Lahore is a rare occurrence: it is not often that two sides so defined by chaos and inconsistency peak simultaneously - at least not in a positive direction - and yet, following their respective fate-defying triumphs over England, a genuinely intriguing encounter packed with subplots is upon us.
Sri Lanka arrive in Lahore - home to their finest night ever - hoping to perhaps summon the spirit of that evening in 1996 to build on Thursday's astonishing display in Rawalpindi, where they produced a batting performance to rival any in their history.
But while a storied past inspires them, more recent travails loom in the background, threatening to derail these hard-earned gains. To put it simply: we have been here before.
At the start of the year, a comprehensive defeat of Australia sparked a false dawn. Their 2022 Asia Cup final triumph - against Tuesday's opponents, no less - flattered to deceive, as did their rollercoaster run to the 2023 Asia Cup final. That is without even mentioning the fleeting euphoria that accompanies any white-ball victory over India. Each of those historic highs has been met with a bruising comedown. Right now, the gnawing voice at the back of every Sri Lankan supporter's mind is howling: do not get your hopes up.
Even so, a successful chase of over 400 is a siren call few can resist. Sri Lanka arrive with a golden opportunity to cement a new foundation.
Standing in their way, however, is a Pakistan side that has clawed out of seemingly bottomless holes of late. In the tournament opener against Sri Lanka, the visitors had the chase in hand before a late bowling rally sealed the points. Then, twice against England, they stood on the absolute precipice of defeat, only to pull off increasingly absurd rearguards. First, it was Arafat Minhas instigating an uncharacteristic English collapse; next, it was Shadab Khan's quite implausible lower-order heroics.
The clear through-line across these matches - aside from Pakistan's undeniable flair for the dramatic - is their uncanny knack for getting into trouble in the first place. But an elite ability to wriggle out of a tight spot is a skill in itself, and it provides a formidable platform to build upon.
Those of English persuasion will also be watching intently. England's now-microscopic hopes of qualifying for the tri-series final rest entirely on this never-say-die Pakistan outfit coming away victorious. A win for the hosts would mark their fifth consecutive ODI victory - a streak they haven't managed since the tail-end of 2024.
Pakistan, though, have secured qualification for the final and could rest key personnel to test the bench. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, will simply be eager to carry on where they left off.
Form guide
Pakistan: WWWWL (Last five completed matches, most recent first)
Sri Lanka: WLWLL
Sri Lanka: WLWLL
In the spotlight: Babar Azam and Eshan Malinga
While his team-mates have played high-scoring cameos and centuries, Babar Azam has looked uncharacteristically subdued, scoring 89 runs so far. Babar, though, favours Sri Lanka as opponents, with four of his 20 ODI centuries coming against them - he has more only against West Indies, five. He also has a love-hate relationship with the Gaddafi Stadium. His first four ODIs at the venue brought two fifties and two centuries. But in five matches since, he has passed 20 just once with a top score of 40. With the pressure off and a final berth secure, all Pakistan will want now is for Babar to rediscover some of that old magic.
While Sri Lanka's win against England will go down in the history books, it was far from a perfect showing - as would be the case when a side concedes 400-plus runs. Taking the brunt of the punishment were the seamers, with Eshan Malinga in particular on the end of some tap with figures of 0 for 91. But his 4 for 46 in the opening game had showcased his ability on pitches offering very little assistance. With Sri Lanka's batting an inconsistent beast, how Malinga manages the death overs against a deep Pakistani batting order will go a long way in deciding this contest.
Team news
Saim Ayub's poor run of form has seen him return to domestic cricket, being replaced with Sahibzada Farhan, while Maaz Sadaqat too has been drafted in. Sadaqat will likely slot in for Ayub, with Farhan's return from Nepal leaving his immediate inclusion in some doubt. Naseem Shah, who was kept out as a precaution last time out because of a dislocated finger, could make his way back into the XI.
Pakistan (probable): Maaz Sadaqat, Fakhar Zaman/Sahibzada Farhan, Babar Azam, Saad Baig (wk), Hasan Nawaz, Salman Ali Agha, Arafat Minhas, Shadab Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi (capt), Razaullah/Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf
Sri Lanka might be reticent to change a winning formula, but Sahan Arachchige's place in the XI looks most under threat. However, with only Kamil Mishara and Lahiru Udara - two top-order batters - in the squad as potential replacements, any move to bring either in would likely see Kamindu Mendis moved into the middle order.
Sri Lanka (probable): Avishka Fernando, Kamindu Mendis, Kusal Mendis (capt, wk), Pavan Rathnayake, Sahan Arachchige, Janith Liyanage, Dasun Shanaka, Dunith Wellalage, Eshan Malinga, Asitha Fernando, Dilshan Madushanka
Pitch and conditions
The action shifts to Lahore's Gaddafi Stadium. The pitch here usually starts off excellent for batting before slowing down slightly as the match progresses. While Sunday's thriller had all the hallmarks of a low-scoring affair, 300 nevertheless seemed a gettable total - in fact, 300 has been breached by the team batting first in five of the last ten ODIs at the venue. That said, the average first-innings score at the venue is 251.
Stats and trivia
- Sri Lanka have won five of their seven ODIs against Pakistan at the Gaddafi Stadium dating back to 1982. Of Sri Lanka's 14 ODIs in total at the venue, they have won ten.
- Three of the five highest scores (each above 350) at the Gaddafi Stadium have come since the start of 2025.
- Pavan Rathnayake now has 506 runs in ODIs, making him just the second Sri Lanka batter after Roy Dias to achieve feat in ten innings.
- Of current batters, only Joe Root has more runs (1571) than Babar's 745 against Sri Lanka in ODIs.
